Irrational Exuberance
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | 4.71 (735 Votes) |
| Asin | : | 0691123357 |
| Format Type | : | paperback |
| Number of Pages | : | 336 Pages |
| Publish Date | : | 2013-05-23 |
| Language | : | English |
DESCRIPTION:
A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes was given. The second edition, 2005, added an analysis of the real estate bubble as similar to the stock market bubble that preceded it, and warned that "Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, were described. Part Two discussed cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Four discussed attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. The book argued that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Although it took as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it placed it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also made concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. Part Three discussed p
. He is author of "The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century" (Princeton) and "Market Volatility and Macro Markets", which won the 1996 Paul A. Samuelson Award. Robert J. Shiller is the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University
This new edition adds data on real-estate price trends in the early 2000s, and points out the striking parallels between the earlier stock-market boom and bust, and current trends with housing prices in the United States. The book walks readers through structural reasons for market bubbles, then ventures into "softer" analyses which professional economists less confident than Shiller would be scared to touch. When the original book released in 2000, Shiller's prescient analysis of bubble-like market behavior provided perspective on the painful meltdown of stock-price val
Rational Analysis I read the second edition of this book since it is enlarged with the study of the housing market. The phenomenon of bubbles and negative bubbles or collapses is described extremely well by means of statistical data of markets for over a century and a half. The raw data is adjusted to inflation to give a realistic perspective of the t. "A great read with a refreshing new perspective (be forewarned that this perspective is quite dismal!)" according to Linds. A wonderful read albeit slightly depressing. Shiller at times dismisses data that is quite relevant in order to continue on with his thesis. Nevertheless, this refreshing take on historical market data and causality is interesting. He spins the animal spirits idea to include not just newsworthy events, per se, but also irrational tri. Right on the money 3 years later. This is a treaty on Behavioral Finance. Shiller makes a strong case that markets are not efficient, but respond to crowd psychology.Shiller rebuts the Efficient Market Hypothesis. He has analyzed many U.S. stock market crashes. In each case, he did not find information absorbed by institutional and individual investors that justified